Modelling the distribution of Manica rubida (Latreille, 1802) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Apstrakt

Ants have an important role in terrestrial ecosystems, and wield considerable ecological and socioeconomic influence. Manica rubida (Latreille, 1802) is native to Europe, Asia, and parts of North Africa, and predominantly inhabits high-altitude mountainous environments. In this study, the Maxent was used to forecast and examine the potential geographic range of Manica rubida in Bosnia and Herzegovina utilizing established distribution points and climate variables. The model investigates the correlation between Manica rubida distribution and environmental factors. We estimated that, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Manica rubida occupies a territory of approximately 4,309.73 km², equivalent to 8.42% of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s entire surface area, with an extent of occurrence (EOO) spanning 8,191.00 km² and an area of occupancy (AOO) covering 112.00 km². Models indicate that the distribution of Manica rubida in the central Dinaric Alps holds significant potential for the species, with temperature emerging as a primary determinant of habitat suitability. As such, there is a need to consider the potential effects of global temperature change on the high-altitude habitats important to the survival of Manica rubida.